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Junga, W J (1981) The building cycle, shorter cycles of residential construction and federal housing programs: An empirical and theoretical analysis, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Connecticut.
- Type: Thesis
- Keywords: residential; mortgage; time series; econometric; duration
- ISBN/ISSN:
- URL: https://www.proquest.com/docview/303094859
- Abstract:
This dissertation is concerned with the fluctuations of residential construction, particularly those occurring subsequent to 1945. The objectives were to determine the existence of the residential building cycle, to measure and find the turning points of the cycle, to determine whether the federal housing programs altered the cycle, and to examine the shorter cycles of residential construction in relation to the building cycle. Various methods were used to attain the objectives. Spectral and cross-spectral analysis were used on rather lengthy time series of annual data of housing starts and the relevant determinants of residential construction. These series were detrended by using the per annum percentage change transform. The original, 3-year moving averages, and the deviations from linear trend of the various classes of annual residential construction data were used to determine the turning points and durations of the building cycle. The Burns-Mitchell approach was used to measure the cycles for amplitude and inter- and intra-cyclical changes. Actual monthly data was used to measure the shorter cycles. The sources of variation in residential construction were also examined. An econometric analysis of the various classes of housing starts was then performed using annual data. The spectral and cross-spectral analysis yielded the information that the detrended housing starts series had a sizeable portion of total variance in or near the building cycle frequencies. However, little association was found between many of the relevant variables and housing starts when examined bivariately. The various classes of housing starts did experience building cycles after the war. The value data showed cycles of the length commonly associated with the major cycles. The turning points of the various classes did not occur simultaneously. However, all the postwar cycles were less severe than their prewar counterparts. This indicates that the federal housing programs aided in part in the stabilization of the building cycle. The econometric analysis determined that an annual model estimated over the 1920-1941 and 1946-1976 period did not adequately explain the 1946-1976 housing behavior. It was found that the net change in mortgage debt outstanding was a very important variable in explaining the latter period's behavior. The conclusions are that the residential building cycle exists, but that it has been markedly altered by the structural changes ushered in by the federal housing programs and the use of the long-term mortgage instrument. The relatively favorable economic and credit conditions were also important in reducing the severity of the building cycle.
Raman, S (1996) Construction exports from semi-industrialized countries: The case of India, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Connecticut.